Groundbreaking econometric forecast provides accurate semiconductor industry forecasts every month
The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast is the first semiconductor industry forecasting service to use rigorous state of the art global GDP macroeconomic models to provide forecasts at a quarterly frequency with monthly updates, allowing forecast recipients to plan for short-term fluctuations in the volatile semiconductor industry.
Forecasting Semiconductors: A Demand-Driven Approach
The Econometric Semiconductor Forecasting Service uses a proven macroeconomic forecasting tool that incorporates measures of economic uncertainty, global economic shocks, and regional volatility to develop a Silicon area forecast for the global semiconductor industry.
The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast provides subscribers with monthly updates of quarterly forecasts of total semiconductor production in Million Square Inches(MSI) of silicon processed.
The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast is based on an advanced econometric forecasting model developed by Duncan Meldrum, business economist and founder of Hilltop Economics, in conjunction with Linx Consulting. The model is based on a demand-driven equation that captures >98% of the long run variation in semiconductors and includes:
- Global real GDP growth (from consensus forecasts)
- US consumer and business spending on technology goods
- Inventory-shipments ratio, computer & electronics
- Financial crisis shock indicator to capture panic behavior in latest cycle
Forecast Reporting Schedule
The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast Service has two key deliverables released on a periodic basis:
- Quarterly Forecasts — 4 times per year (in February, May, August, November) with corresponding webinars
- Monthly Updates — 8 times per year in the remaining months
Publishing Schedule
| Output |
Release date |
| January monthly update |
4th week of January |
| February monthly Update |
4th week of February |
| 1Q Quarterly Forecast (webinar included) |
1st week of March |
| March Monthly Update |
4th week of march |
| April Monthly Update |
4th week of April |
| 2Q Quarterly Forecast (webinar included) |
4th week of May |
| June Monthly Update |
4th week of June |
| July Monthly Update |
4th week of July |
| 3Q Quarterly Forecast (webinar included) |
4th week of August |
| September |
4th week of September |
| October |
4th week of October |
| 4Q Quarterly Forecast (webinar included) |
4th week of November |
| December |
4th week of December |
Title: Econometric Semiconductor Industry Forecast
